MLB Power Rankings: What a difference a year makes (2024)

By Tim Britton, Chad Jennings and Kaitlyn McGrath

Every week,​ we​ ask a selected group of our baseball​ writers​ — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results.

You know who has really moved up our Power Rankings in recent weeks?

Infielder Zack Short has bounced to three teams in just over a fortnight. He was designated for assignment by the New York Mets, traded to the Boston Red Sox, DFA’d by the Red Sox, and on Thursday traded to the Atlanta Braves.

From No. 20 to No. 15 to No. 3 in our Power Rankings. FanGraphs estimates his chances of winning a World Series ring have gone from roughly 1 percent to just under 20 percent. If the Dodgers, Phillies and Yankees all need short-term infielders at the exact right times, Short’s odds of winning a ring could be over 50 percent by the time playoffs start!

And to think, just twelve months ago, Short was getting limited at-bats for the Detroit Tigers.

This week’s Power Rankings are all about how things can change in a year. We’re ranking our teams the usual way but also sneaking a look at our Power Rankings from this time last year to see how far — in either direction — each team has gone.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Record: 28-15
Last Power Ranking: 1

This time last year: 27-15, ranked No. 2

The Dodgers’ relentless excellence in the regular season naturally leads you to try to find the flaw. So you scroll through what they’re doing, and you spot it: A-ha, you say, the bottom third of the lineup doesn’t look so hot these days, right? With James Outman, Gavin Lux and especially Chris Taylor all struggling, this lineup isn’t as deep as it has been most years.

But then there’s Andy Pages to step in for one of them, there’s the idea that those three players won’t all be this bad this season, and oh yeah, the Dodgers still lead all of baseball in runs per game. The top third of the Los Angeles order is majestic. Mookie Betts might reach 14 wins above replacement, and Shohei Ohtani might have 100 extra-base hits. This team defeats all impulsive contrarianism. — Tim Britton

2. Atlanta Braves

Record: 25-13
Last Power Ranking: 2

This time last year: 25-12, ranked No. 4

Spend some time on the 2024 Baseball-Reference page for Atlanta and just sort of shake your head. Orlando Arcia has the best slugging percentage among the infielders. Marcell Ozuna has more home runs than any two players put together. A.J. Minter is on pace for more than 30 decisions as a one-inning reliever.

And yet, the end result is still awfully good to this point, with the potential to be a whole lot more. The trio of Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson had combined for seven home runs all season before they each went deep in the same inning Friday night against Jose Quintana — the starter with the best home-run rate in baseball the past few years. Max Fried decided to stop allowing hits, or something like that. No one doubts that Atlanta will be fine in the regular season. Now it’s just a matter of getting to October with as much of this roster intact as possible and hoping they can adequately replace Spencer Strider. — Britton

T-3. Baltimore Orioles

Record: 26-14
Last Power Ranking: 3

This time last year: 26-13, ranked No. 6

A year ago, we were still adjusting to the idea of a “first-place Baltimore Orioles.” A year later, we’re accustomed to this new world order and no one is surprised Baltimore is again on pace to exceed 100 wins. Another way this year mirrors last? The Orioles could again have a Rookie of the Year winner if Colton Cowser keeps up his impressive start.

This year, Baltimore has been a well-balanced club, with their pitching and offense sitting in the top two in the AL, per fWAR. If there is a major difference from a year ago, however, it’s at the closer position. Félix Bautista was all but a guarantee to secure the final three outs, but as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, the veteran Craig Kimbrel, signed in the offseason, hasn’t been as reliable and the O’s are experimenting with using him earlier in games. Despite that, the Orioles are again well-placed to contend for the AL East crown. — Kaitlyn McGrath

T-3. Philadelphia Phillies

Record: 29-13
Last Power Ranking: 5

This time last year: 20-21, ranked No. 16

For a few seasons now, we have spent the winter and the first five and a half months of the regular season extolling Los Angeles and Atlanta as the obvious two frontrunners in the National League and the sport as a whole. And then come late September, when the Phillies look like they’ve got their stuff together, we point out that, you know, that team can be a tough out in a short series.

How should we thus view a Phillies team that clearly has its stuff together right from the start?

In the past two seasons, Philadelphia didn’t crest over .500 for good until June 15. One year ended in the World Series, the other hosting Game 7 of the NLCS. This year, the Phillies last surpassed .500 on April 15, and haven’t looked back. Their rotation looks like a monster, their lineup is deep. Maybe it’s time to think of Philadelphia as a legitimate contender alongside Atlanta to win the division, alongside Los Angeles to win 100 games, alongside anybody else in baseball to enter October as a juggernaut favorite. — Britton

5. New York Yankees

Record: 27-15
Last Power Ranking: 4

This time last year: 23-19, ranked No. 9

This was the moment of ascent for last year’s Yankees. They’d just jumped from 15th to 9th in our Power Rankings, and they were a week away from reaching No. 7, where they would stay through the end of May before losing records in June, July, and August sent them tumbling. This year’s Yankees have already made a big jump from the middle of the pack to a consistent presence in our top five. Last week opened with a winning homestand (five of six against the Tigers and Astros) before taking two of three on the road against the Rays last weekend. The Yankees are in a good spot. The trick, sometimes, is maintaining it. (A more productive Gleyber Torres would help.) — Chad Jennings

6. Minnesota Twins

Record: 24-16
Last Power Ranking: 7

This time last year: 22-18, ranked No. 7

Things look relatively similar for the Twins a year apart, save for sitting in second place in their division instead of first, thanks to an AL Central that no longer looks like the laughingstock of the majors but instead like a highly competitive division.

But this Twins’ season has been a tale of two teams. After a dreadful start, the Twins used a 12-game win streak — and a rally (and perhaps rancid) summer sausage — to climb up the standings and have won 17 of their past 20 games. Behind a resurgence from their offenseand improvement from their rotation, the Twins are on pace for 97 wins. All hail the sausage. — McGrath

7. Chicago Cubs

Record: 24-18
Last Power Ranking: 9

This time last year: 19-22, ranked No. 19

We should get a better sense of Chicago’s ceiling soon, now that Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki and Justin Steele are all back off the injured list. To this point, the Cubs have done a nice job of weathering various absences from their everyday players, fueled by the performances of Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon in the rotation and Mike Tauchman in the lineup.

It’s the kind of thing good teams do when they’re missing their better players, and the Cubs are looking more and more like a very good team. Last year’s early narrative was about Steele’s breakout and Bellinger’s rebound; now it’s about putting all the right pieces around those guys. — Britton

8. Milwaukee Brewers

Record: 24-17
Last Power Ranking: 11

This time last year: 23-17, ranked No. 8

A year apart, the Brewers are in a similar position in the standings, but they look different this season. Corbin Burnes is gone, now leading another first-place club. Devin Williams isn’t dominating in the bullpen but is instead on the 60-day IL with a back injury.

One constant, though, has been catcher William Contreras, who was the Brewers’ best player through a quarter of the 2023 season and has taken up that role once again. Tyler Kepner noted that he’s been one of MLB’s best players this season, helping a Brewers team battered by injuries continue to find ways to win. Brewers GM Matt Arnold called Contreras “an MVP candidate” and one they must protect, especially given the increasingly dangerous position he plays — highlighted last week when William’s brother, St. Louis Cardinals catcher Willson Contreras, fractured his arm. — McGrath

9. Seattle Mariners

Record: 23-19
Last Power Ranking: 8

This time last year: 21-20, ranked No. 13

What a difference a year makes in the AL West. After 41 games, the Mariners are only one win better this year. But a year ago, with a similar record, the Mariners were sitting in fourth place in a division that had four teams — Astros, Rangers, Angels and Mariners — with winning records. This year, only the Mariners and Rangers have posted records above .500.

The Mariners have seized the division lead thanks to the strength of their pitching, but if Seattle wants to take a stronghold of the division, they need more from star Julio Rodríguez, whose 89 wRC+ is well off his typical offensive pace. The center fielder hit just his second home run of 2024 over the weekend. Was it a sign of things to come? Surely, Rodríguez will hit a hot streak at some point. If he does, maybe the Mariners can continue to chart a different path than last year and get back into the postseason. — McGrath

10. Cleveland Guardians

Record: 26-16
Last Power Ranking: 6

This time last year: 19-22, ranked No. 19 (tied)

Come on now, Guardians. We here at Power Rankings were hesitant to believe, but we’ve started to buy in. First place in the division. Top-10 run differential. Terrific bullpen with a bit of a resurgent offense. We were finally getting on board, ranking you just outside our tough-to-crack top five, but then you lost three of four — to the White Sox? Only three teams have a losing record against the South Siders this season: the underwhelming Rays, sinking Cardinals, and now the Guardians (who are 2-4 against the worst team in the AL). This time last year, it was clear the Guardians were on their way to a disappointing season. The Guardians have slipped, certainly, but we’re still willing to consider last weekend’s series to be mostly a bump in the road. — Jennings

11. Texas Rangers

Record: 22-21
Last Power Ranking: 10

This time last year: 26-16, ranked No. 3

Given the way last season ended, it’s easy to forget that the Rangers came out of the gate red hot last season, only to fall into mediocrity in the summer, get hot in September, and then roll to a World Series championship. The start of this season has been a lot more mediocrity, with some good stretches followed by low points like this past weekend, when they were swept by the Rockies. Outside of the top five or so, there are a lot of teams stuck in this murky middle of our Power Rankings, and we’re clearly still figuring out what to make of them. Texas feels like the kind of team that could sustain a hot streak at some point like they did early and late last season, but we still haven’t seen it. — Jennings

12. San Diego Padres

Record: 22-22
Last Power Ranking: 14

This time last year: 20-23, ranked No. 14

The Padres’ record is better this year, but it’s hard not to think the longer-term outlook for the franchise is worse. Beloved owner Peter Seidler passed away in the offseason, Juan Soto was traded away, and neither Manny Machado nor Xander Bogaerts has looked particularly good this season. Each is under contract for nine more seasons after this one.

Bogaerts’ prolonged slump is the bigger concern right now, given the amount of blue on his Baseball Savant page. His quality of contact is down across the board, and that continues a trend for him over the past few seasons, which makes it different than the aberrational 2017 season that preceded the best years of his career. The unexpected offense the Padres have received from Jake Cronenworth and Jurickson Profar has helped conceal Bogaerts’ struggles, but he’ll need to hit soon for this to be a playoff team. — Britton

13. Tampa Bay Rays

Record: 21-21
Last Power Ranking: 13

This time last year: 30-11, ranked No. 1

It was almost exactly one year ago that Rays starter Drew Rasmussen went on the IL with a flexor strain that required an internal brace procedure. By that point, Jeffrey Springs had already undergone Tommy John surgery, and within a few months, ace Shane McClanahan would, too. Those ongoing health issues help explain the team’s fall these past 12 months. Last year’s Rays opened their season with 13 straight wins. This year’s edition didn’t get 13 wins until late April, at which point they were 13-13 and fighting to avoid last place in the AL East.

The Rays had some momentum with a five-game winning streak last week, then they lost their series finale against the White Sox before dropping two of three against the Yankees over the weekend. Taj Bradley finally returned from the IL, and others will surely follow, but it might be too late. — Jennings

14. Kansas City Royals

Record: 25-18
Last Power Ranking: 15

This time last year: 12-30, ranked No. 29

The theme of our weekly Power Rankings from a year ago was to name one potential awards winner from each roster. For the lowly Royals, we declared Zack Greinke a first-ballot Hall of Famer because, honestly, who else from that team was going to win anything? Well, this year’s Royals just keep winning and moving up our rankings. They just took three of four from the Angels, and two of three from the Brewers. As for award winners, how about Bobby Witt Jr. as a legit MVP candidate (he’s the AL leader in fWAR) and Seth Lugo making an early case for the Cy Young Award (his eight innings on Sunday gave him a league-leading 1.66 ERA)? — Jennings

15. Boston Red Sox

Record: 21-20
Last Power Ranking: 12

This time last year: 22-18, ranked No. 12

For the largely overperforming Red Sox, this is perhaps a sobering reminder that they were in an even better spot at this time last year only to end up with a losing record and a last-place finish. This year’s team has exceeded modest expectations, but they have slipped a bit lately. Starters Nick Pivetta and Brayan Bello returned from the IL recently, and Garrett Whitlock shouldn’t be far behind, but pitching really isn’t the Red Sox’s problem. They still have the lowest ERA in the majors, but the lineup has struggled to make up for injuries to Trevor Story, Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida. The team had lost back-to-back series before taking two of three from the Nationals this weekend (though they were outscored in the series). The Red Sox have been trying to fix things on the fly, and it’s kind of working, but more offense would certainly help. — Jennings

16. Arizona Diamondbacks

Record: 19-22
Last Power Ranking: 19

This time last year: 23-18, ranked No. 10

A year ago, the Diamondbacks were picking up steam in the NL West, and by the start of June, the D-Backs were the surprise leaders — though even then, not many would have picked them to make a run to the World Series.

This year hasn’t gotten off to a hot start and the D-Backs continue to reside in the mushy middle of the power rankings. Injuries, a faltering bullpen and an inconsistent offense are all contributing reasons for Arizona’s losing record. A 4-2 road trip has them looking better than they did a week ago, and Zac Gallen continues to be a force. Still, the team is well off the pace it set last year and has work to do to match its magical playoff run. — McGrath

17. Detroit Tigers

Record: 21-20
Last Power Ranking: 16

This time last year: 19-21, ranked No. 22

A week and a half ago, this was shaping up to be a long-awaited breakout season for the Tigers, but here we are in the middle of May, and those same Tigers are almost exactly where they were a year ago. The problem is that they’ve lost their past three series, and Sunday’s blowout loss to the Astros was the Tigers’ seventh loss in their past nine games. Two of them were walk-offs, but still, it’s been a tough stretch. Last week, they finally sent struggling center fielder Parker Meadows back to the minors. Most of their infielders have provided nothing on offense, meanwhile, one of their former players, Willi Castro, has become an early stud with the division rival Twins. Back where they were a year ago is not remotely where the Tigers want to be. — Jennings

18. Toronto Blue Jays

Record: 19-22
Last Power Ranking: 18

This time last year: 24-16, ranked No. 5

A year ago, the Blue Jays were riding high after a sweep of the Braves and Matt Chapman was getting early MVP consideration after his offensive outburst in April. A lot has changed in a year. (Well, actually, a lot changed in three weeks when the Jays went 5-11 the rest of May, and Chapman’s offense fell off a cliff the rest of the season.)

This season, the Blue Jays have underwhelmed and sit last in the division. And while there are some reasons to be optimistic they can turn it around, there are equally as many reasons to be pessimistic about the club, including a bullpen that isn’t nearly as reliable as the 2023 version.

If there was a high point of the season, it came this weekend when the Blue Jays clawed back from a six-run deficit to beat the red-hot Twins, but the Blue Jays still lost the series and remain winless in series play since April 21. Unless the Blue Jays’ offense can turn things around, including a struggling Bo Bichette, they’ll only continue to fall in the rankings. — McGrath

19. Houston Astros

Record: 16-25
Last Power Ranking: 17

This time last year: 21-19, ranked No. 11

At this time last year, Justin Verlander was pitching for the Mets and had just made his third start back from the IL while the Astros were still sorting through a so-so first month and a half. (They would trade for Verlander a few months later.) This year, Verlander’s back in Houston. He just made his fifth start back from the IL — seven scoreless innings on Sunday — and the Astros need him to help turn their season around. They have a fairly weak schedule coming up (two series with the A’s, one with the Angels), and they just took two of three from the Tigers, but the Astros are still pretty far out of contention almost a quarter of the way through the year. — Jennings

20. New York Mets

Record: 19-21
Last Power Ranking: 20

This time last year: 19-20, ranked No. 18

The scientific literature on the effect of expectations on individuals and groups is vast and often conflicting. So here we present our evidence: The 2023 Mets, expected to be very good, were 19-20 after 39 games. The 2024 Mets, expected to be just OK, were 19-20 after 39 games. The impact of expectations on performance appears minimal. (The impact of expectations on fan perception might be larger, extrapolating from the more tepid airwaves on WFAN this May. The local success of the Knicks and Rangers constitutes a confounding factor that requires more rigorous research.)

The path to the middling record is different this year than last and, in some ways, less concerning. Last year’s team started well before losing a bunch of series to teams it should have been better than. This year’s club started poorly but has, for the most part, performed as you’d expect it to against its schedule. Keep doing that in this National League, and you’ll be a wild-card contender deep into the summer. — Britton

21. San Francisco Giants

Record: 19-24
Last Power Ranking: 22

This time last year: 19-23, ranked No. 21

Forget this time last year; this time last week, the Giants looked a lot better than they do right now. In a span of 10 days, San Francisco has placed Tom Murphy, Patrick Bailey, Jorge Soler, Nick Ahmed, Michael Conforto, Austin Slater and Jung Hoo Lee on the injured list. That’s five starters and two prominent bench players!

Lee’s dislocated shoulder on Sunday is the worst of those, knocking out a player central to San Francisco’s hopes this season. And it’s not as if the Giants have bought themselves much margin for error with their performance to this point. San Francisco ranks in the bottom third in the NL in runs per game and ERA.

And oh, if we remember this time last year, it just looks like more of the same. — Britton

22. Cincinnati Reds

Record: 17-23
Last Power Ranking: 21

This time last year: 18-22, ranked No. 24

Last season’s Reds didn’t begin their unexpected and ultimately short-lived surge to first place in the NL Central until June, so maybe we can still expect a winning burst from the 2024 version. But for now, the club is in a similar position as last year, sitting fourth in their division after a dreadful 1-9 start to May that included an eight-game losing streak and some ugly numbers.

If there is a significant difference between this year and last, it’s the Reds’ trio of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft, who are all off to better starts this year and living up to their potential. As C. Trent Rosecrans detailed, “So far this year, the trio is 7-6 with a 3.53 ERA” which is an improvement from the combined 4-5 record and 4.55 ERA they put up through 40 games last year. The big three finished 13-17 in 55 starts with a 4.96 ERA last year and look poised to improve this year. — McGrath

23. Washington Nationals

Record: 19-20
Last Power Ranking: 26

This time last year: 17-22, ranked No. 28

Last year in these rankings, we highlighted the important early-season success of Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore and what that signaled for the bright future of the Washington rotation. And sure enough, the Nats have a solid rotation in 2024, headed by … Trevor Williams?

The 32-year-old Williams, in the latter half of a two-year deal he signed to be a rotation stabilizer, is off to the best start of his career. His ERA is below 2.00, his FIP below 2.50, and after serving up a league-leading 34 home runs last season, he’s allowed zero in seven starts this year. OK, so that part probably isn’t sustainable, but Williams can check a lot of boxes for a contender at the trade deadline — where the Nats have been successful the past few summers in turning small free-agent deals into longer-term help. — Britton

24. Pittsburgh Pirates

Record: 19-23
Last Power Ranking: 25

This time last year: 22-19, ranked No. 17

In May 2023, much-buzzed-about pitching prospect Paul Skenes was helping lead LSU to its eventual College World Series title. A year later, the 2023 No. 1 MLB draft pick was making his major-league debut for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

After he dominated the competition in Triple A, the Pirates had no choice but to call up Skenes, whose major-league debut was the most-anticipated for a pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg’s in 2010. Against the Cubs, Skenes flashed ace-like stuff and struck out seven over four innings while allowing three runs on six hits and two walks in an eventual 10-9 Pirates win. The Pirates naturally want to temper expectations on Skenes, who will need to make adjustments against major-league hitters. But his debut was a sign that a new era had finally arrived in Pittsburgh after years of rebuilding. — McGrath

25. St. Louis Cardinals

Record: 17-24
Last Power Ranking: 23

This time last year: 15-25, ranked No. 25

The Cardinals responded to last year’s brutal last-place finish with some aggressive rhetoric their conservative approach in the offseason didn’t live up to. And this year’s team is underperforming to the same extent but in a way that’s maybe even more concerning.

The offense is an absolute mess, and it might get worse after Willson Contreras broke his arm. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado look their age, and the younger pieces supposed to step up in their stead moving forward have instead taken steps of varying lengths backward (or have spent chunks of time on the IL). The outfielder they traded in the offseason has excelled elsewhere, which is a sentence you can write about a lot of recent Cardinals iterations.

The winter’s rotation additions have actually been good, but the holdovers haven’t. There’s still a temptation to look at the talent and expect better, but we’re in Month 8 of thinking the Cardinals are just about to turn it around. A more wholesale revamp may be in the cards. — Britton

26. Oakland Athletics

Record: 19-24
Last Power Ranking: 24

This time last year: 9-33, ranked No. 30

Look, it’s not as bad as it was. So, that’s something, right? Last year’s A’s didn’t get their 19th win until June 13, so being there a month early is progress. And as of last weekend, the team had won eight of nine to build a .500 record. Of course, they immediately lost six of eight, and opposing teams are predictably trying to pry closer Mason Miller away. The A’s have to consider it, right? Might as well put Paul Blackburn, Brent Rooker and Abraham Toro on the block, too. Maybe even Shea Langeliers and JJ Bleday. This season is better, but even with so many people clearly rooting for them, the A’s still aren’t good. — Jennings

27. Los Angeles Angels

Record: 15-27
Last Power Ranking: 27

This time last year: 21-20, ranked No. 15

In the Angels’ write-up a year ago, three names were mentioned: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and manager Phil Nevin. None is active with the team today. Nevin was let go at the end of last season, Ohtani left via free agency (you probably heard about that), and Trout got hurt at the end of a resurgent April. So, now what? Sunday’s lineup had Willie Calhoun — called up from Triple A on May 1 — hitting cleanup. Four guys in the lineup were batting .200 or worse. Of all the years for Jo Adell to finally have a good season, it’s within this lost cause. — Jennings

28. Chicago White Sox

Record: 12-29
Last Power Ranking: 30

This time last year: 14-27, ranked No. 27

Things were bad for the White Sox a year ago, but not quite this bad. Last year, the team was still well below .500, but Luis Robert Jr. looked like one of the best center fielders in baseball.

This year, Robert has been on the IL since April 6 and the White Sox had a historically bad start. They’re at least coming off a series win over the first-place Guardians, but their minus-90 run differential is the worst in the majors and they’re prepping for a teardown. But at least Tommy Pham is making the most of his opportunity with the club. In 15 games, he’s hitting .293/.339/.448, and if he can keep it up, he can expect to be dealt to a contender in July, while the White Sox can hopefully start to stockpile pieces for a brighter future. — McGrath

29. Colorado Rockies

Record: 13-28
Last Power Ranking: 29

This time last year: 16-24, ranked No. 26

Last year at the time, the Rockies had a few more wins to their name and they could look down and see four teams below them in the power rankings. But one unchanged thing is that they were a last-place team then and remain a last-place team now. As has been the case for a while, there hasn’t been much to celebrate at Coors Field this season. But this past weekend, the Rockies swept the reigning champion Texas Rangers, which gave them their season’s first four-game winning streak. In a year not likely to contain many highs, it’s reason enough to celebrate. — McGrath

30. Miami Marlins

Record: 11-32
Last Power Ranking: 28

This time last year: 21-21, ranked No. 23

So the good news is that the 2023 Marlins hadn’t quite established themselves as a legit postseason contender by this point, and the ’24 squad thus doesn’t suffer so badly from the juxtaposition. The bad news is that Miami was still part of a big mid-May talking point in the sport last year, thanks to Luis Arraez’s near-.400 batting average.

Yeah, about that.

Arraez is a Padre now, and the Marlins are renewing their proud tradition of selling faster than anyone else anticipated. Few individual teams have betrayed whatever confidence the local fan base had in their direction with as much celerity as the Marlins have since the end of last season, but then again, juxtaposed against 1998, this isn’t so bad, right? — Britton

(Top photo of Paul Goldschmidt: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)