There are 15 MLB games on Tuesday, June 11, and our staff has locked in fiveMLB Best Bets.
Read on for our MLBProps, Picks, Predictions forToday's loaded slate.
Nationals vs. Tigers
Tuesday, June 11, 6:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Kenta Maeda Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+122, FanDuel)
Right-hander Kenta Maeda gets the ball for Detroit on Tuesday, and he has struggled mightily thus far.
Through 10 starts this season, Maeda has posted a 6.25 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, and positive regression is unlikely, at least based on his underlying metrics. He ranks in the 18th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and barrel rate.
Specifically, we are going to fade Maeda in the strikeout market, as he ranks in the 30th percentile in whiff rate and 16th percentile in strikeout rate.
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While we are catching a low strikeout total at 3.5, he has still failed to surpass this number in two of his past three starts. Technically, Maeda has actually stayed under this number in three of his past four starts as he exited his start against Texas with an injury after throwing only two pitches.
That could also come into play tomorrow, but I like him to record three or fewer strikeouts even under the assumption that he is once again fully healthy.
Through 31 combined career plate appearances against Maeda, this current Washington lineup possesses a mere 12.9% strikeout rate and 15.5% whiff rate.
The Nationals also rank in the top half of the league in strikeout rate this season when facing right-handed pitching.
Pick: Kenta Maeda Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+122) | Play to 3.5 (+110)
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Cubs vs. Rays
Tuesday, June 11, 6:50 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Cubs F5 ML (+124, DraftKings)
The Tampa Bay Rays just got swept by the Baltimore Orioles in a four-game set over the weekend.
They now welcome in the Chicago Cubs for a three-game set at the Trop.
The Rays are four games under .500, whereas the Cubs avoided being swept by the Reds on Sunday after a great pitching performance from Shota Imanaga.
Zach Eflin gets the ball for the Rays tonight, and he has been the subject of misfortune to begin the season. The strikeout numbers are well below his pace from last season, but he is rarely allowing any free passes.
Eflin's posted a 4.14 ERA this year, but his xERA is closer to 3.50. His chase rate is above average, and his barrel rate is lower than last year.
Hitters are not striking out as much, but Eflin is doing a nice job of limiting hard contact. With his current walk rate, he is more than capable of sustaining better success moving forward.
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However, even with positive regression looming, he has gotten absolutely shelled by these Cubs hitters in the past. The current Cubs lineup is hitting .346 lifetime against Eflin, including a couple of homers from Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson.
Jameson Taillon is a similar pitcher to Eflin, as he also relies on generating soft contact. His walk rate and barrel rates are similarly low. Current Rays hitters are 12-for-47 lifetime against him.
The Rays are striking out 30% of the time against right-handed pitching over the past month, so Taillon certainly gets a boost here. They also rank 27th in runs scored per game, and there are no signs of the offense improving moving forward.
I like Eflin, but it is a tough matchup for him.
Eliminating the bullpen variance from the game, I like the Cubs to tack on some runs early and have the lead after five frames.
Pick: Cubs F5 ML (+124)
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Guardians vs. Reds
Tuesday, June 11, 7:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Reds F5 +0.5 (-130, BetMGM)
The Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds kick off a three-game set at Great American Ballpark in the battle of Ohio on Tuesday.
Triston McKenzie gets the ball for the Guardians, and Brent Suter gets it for the Reds.
McKenzie has been overperforming all year, and some negative regression occurred last week against the Royals when he allowed five runs on nine hits across 5 1/3 innings.
The biggest takeaway from that outing was that he allowed three home runs. On Tuesday, McKenzie faces a Reds lineup that is still trying to build consistency but is full of hard-hitters.
Great American Ballpark is very friendly for offenses, especially as the ball begins to carry further on warm Summer evenings.
McKenzie is walking a lot of batters and consistently allowing too much hard contact. His velocity is down from years prior, but he is still consistently racking up strikeouts. I believe he is dealing with an underlying injury, and I am more than happy to continue fading him.
The Reds are prone to striking out, but I still believe the lineup is more than capable of hanging a crooked number on any given night. I will happily pay a little juice to ensure the Reds will either be winning or tied by the end of the fifth.
Pick: Reds F5 +0.5 (-130)
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Pirates vs. Cardinals
Tuesday, June 11, 7:45 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Pirates ML (-130, Bet365)
This line is unbelievably mispriced, especially when Paul Skenes was able to take down the Dodgers with ease in his last outing.
Skenes has been exactly as advertised in limited MLB starts. He has a dominant fastball and “splinker," fueling a strikeout rate above 30%. He also walks less than 6% of batters with a well-above-average groundball rate. He can yield hard contact at times, but that's fine if it's on the ground.
The fireball-throwing righty takes on Miles Mikolas and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mikolas has an ERA over 5.00 and an xERA of 4.60. Sure, he will have some positive regression, but a 17.8% strikeout rate and a below-average batted-ball profile won't cut it.
St. Louis has thrived against righties lately, posting a 121 wRC+ over the past month.
The Pirates have a 97 wRC+ with those same parameters in place.
That said, the Cardinals have eight active batters above a .320 xwOBA. The Pirates have nine over .310. The differences between the lineups against righties are negligible.
Add in Skenes against Mikolas, and the additional context would typically yield a much more favorable line to the Pirates.
Yes, St. Louis has a great bullpen, but the Pirates should have a couple arms on the back of Skenes’ start.
Pick: Pirates ML (-130) | Play to ML (-150)
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Yankees vs. Royals
Tuesday, June 11, 8:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Brady Singer Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130, DraftKings)
Brady Singer will get the pleasure of pitching against the best offense in the American League, the New York Yankees, on Tuesday.
Singer has a 2.76 ERA on the season, but a 4.50 xERA and 3.67 FIP. The 27-year-old righty has stranded 83.6% of his runners this season despite a 71.8% career average. Singer ranks in the 26th percentile among qualified pitchers in xERA and 24th percentile in xBA.
The batted ball metrics on Singer are also subpar, as he is in the 31st percentile among qualified pitchers in barrel rate allowed, 38th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and 33rd percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
Singer ranks in the 60th percentile in strikeout rate but in only 36th percentile in whiff rate and 30th percentile in chase rate, which may point towards his strikeout totals being a bit inflated. Among 88 starters with 60-plus innings this year, Singer ranks 74th in Stuff+ and 78th in Pitching+.
His opponent today is the Yankees, who lead all MLB lineups in wRC+, wOBA, and walk rate with the eighth-lowest strikeout rate.
This is a terribly hard matchup for Singer, who has overperformed his stuff this year. At some point, Singer’s numbers will come back to Earth, and the Bronx Bombers could force that negative regression.
I don’t think Singer has a great start tonight as New York may be able to chase him from this game early, but even if he does okay against this offense, I don’t count on him being able to rack up strikeouts tonight.
My model projects Singer to have 3.48 strikeouts tonight with a median of 3.00, predicting a 73% chance of him staying under this number compared to the market-implied chance of 56.5%, giving us a 16.5% edge over the current line.
